Woman explains what ’30 per cent chance of rain’ means – it’s not what you think
A woman was left stunned when she discovered what the weather app really means when it gives you the chance of rain in per cent – and it’s blowing people’s minds.
TikTok user @sydjkell said that she believed that the percentage of rain meant how likely it was to rain in a video that has been viewed more than 9.3 million times – but now she says that’s not true.
The mum replied to a question from a fellow TikTok user @sooklyn, who asked: “What is something you found out late in life that you should have known earlier but just didn’t?”
She said: “I thought that when they said there’s a 30 per cent chance of rain, that it meant that there was 30 per cent chance that it was gonna rain.
“I never ever ever knew that it meant that it’s 100 per cent going to rain and it’s going to be in 30 per cent of your area.
“So like if it says 100 per cent, your whole entire area that you’re asking about, your ZIP code or whatever – it’s going to blanket the whole thing,” the mum concluded.
Since being posted, the video has been liked more than 1.7 million times and received 39,000 comments from viewers who were just as stunned as she was.
One said: “I found that out like… right now.”
Another commented: “I don’t know what the heck is going on anymore.”
“Wait WHAT,” penned a third.
While another joked: “At this point, I attend TikTok university.”
Someone else said: “Girl I thought it was how heavy the rain was like 100% max rain and 30% was drizzle.”
The Weather Channel then got involved, posting a video of its own explaining that when a meteorologist says there’s a certain percentage of rain, they’re calculating the percentage of precipitation – known as POP.
It explained that this is the confidence of rain times the forecasted area – which left everyone even more confused.
The video said: “Let’s say I’m 100 per cent sure that 30 per cent of the forecast area will see at least some measurable rain, then I forecast 30 per cent chance for rain.
“Important to remember, the percentage has nothing to do with how much rain falls. You could have a 10 per cent chance for rain and still end up with flooding if you get caught under a rogue thunderstorm.
“It doesn’t help that a lot of different meteorologists have different definitions but this is the actual technical definition.”
But the explanation didn’t seem to help as people in the comments admitted they were just as lost as they were before.